From: Public health application of predictive modeling: an example from farm vehicle crashes
Variables | Categories | Injured or died | Model coefficients (std. error) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Model 1a | Model 2b | Model 3c | ||
Intercept | Intercept (constant) | 2087 | 12,747 | −1.75 (0.18) | −1.73 (0.24) | −0.97 (0.25) |
Non-modifiable factors | ||||||
 State | Iowa | 421 | 1858 | 0.39 (0.10) | 0.46 (0.10) | 0.42 (0.10) |
Illinois | 421 | 2230 | 0.19 (0.10) | 0.20 (0.11) | 0.33 (0.11) | |
Kansas | 186 | 1291 | −0.19 (0.12) | −0.21 (0.12) | − 0.26 (0.13) | |
Minnesota | 199 | 1688 | −0.30 (0.11) | −0.24 (0.12) | − 0.08 (0.12) | |
Missouri | 207 | 1686 | −0.09 (0.11) | −0.21 (0.12) | − 0.34 (0.12) | |
North Dakota | 51 | 431 | −0.43 (0.21) | −0.50 (0.21) | − 0.56 (0.21) | |
Nebraska | 189 | 970 | 0.16 (0.12) | 0.11 (0.12) | 0.08 (0.12) | |
South Dakota | 74 | 379 | 0.16 (0.17) | 0.14 (0.18) | −0.06 (0.19) | |
Wisconsin (referent) | 339 | 2214 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
 Season | Winter (Jan-Mar) (referent) | 192 | 1510 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Planting (Apr-May) | 341 | 2307 | 0.06 (0.12) | 0.20 (0.12) | 0.17 (0.12) | |
Growing (Jun-Aug) | 635 | 3492 | 0.30 (0.11) | 0.42 (0.11) | 0.38 (0.11) | |
Harvesting (Sep-Dec) | 919 | 5438 | 0.19 (0.10) | 0.16 (0.10) | 0.15 (0.10) | |
 Weather at the time of crash | Clear (referent) | 1618 | 9802 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cloudy | 329 | 2081 | −0.01 (0.08) | − 0.09 (0.08) | − 0.11 (0.08) | |
Rain | 78 | 376 | 0.17 (0.15) | −0.03 (0.16) | 0.03 (0.16) | |
Snow/sleet/hail/freezing rain/drizzle | 22 | 289 | −0.74 (0.28) | −0.89 (0.28) | − 0.87 (0.28) | |
Fog/smog/smoke/other | 40 | 199 | 0.15 (0.22) | 0.01 (0.22) | −0.08 (0.23) | |
 Time of crash | 12:00–5:59 am (referent) | 131 | 739 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6:00–11:59 am | 501 | 3478 | −0.11 (0.13) | 0.13 (0.14) | 0.17 (0.14) | |
12:00–5:59 pm | 885 | 6218 | −0.14 (0.13) | 0.08 (0.13) | 0.08 (0.14) | |
6:00–11:59 pm | 570 | 2312 | 0.41 (0.14) | 0.12 (0.14) | 0.11 (0.14) | |
 Number of vehicles | Single vehicle | 238 | 827 | 1.37 (0.10) | 1.22 (0.13) | 1.22 (0.14) |
Two or more vehicles (referent) | 1849 | 11,920 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
 Equipment type | Farm vehicle/equipment | 672 | 6875 | −1.14 (0.06) | −1.02 (0.06) | −1.63 (0.08) |
Non-farm vehicle (referent) | 1415 | 5872 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
 Age | <  16 years age | 159 | 799 | 0.24 (0.11) | 0.04 (0.13) | 0.13 (0.14) |
16–24 years age | 388 | 2120 | 0.24 (0.09) | 0.21 (0.09) | 0.22 (0.10) | |
25–34 years age (referent) | 234 | 1839 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
35–44 years age | 288 | 1851 | 0.15 (0.10) | 0.15 (0.10) | 0.20 (0.10) | |
45–54 years age | 325 | 2326 | 0.11 (0.09) | 0.10 (0.10) | 0.13 (0.10) | |
55–64 years age | 278 | 1794 | 0.22 (0.10) | 0.24 (0.10) | 0.30 (0.10) | |
65+ years age | 415 | 2018 | 0.49 (0.09) | 0.51 (0.09) | 0.59 (0.10) | |
 Sex | Female (referent) | 626 | 2663 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Male | 1461 | 10,084 | −0.19 (0.06) | −0.14 (0.06) | −0.26 (0.06) | |
Semi-modifiable factors | ||||||
 Light | Daylight (referent) | 1407 | 10,195 |  | 0 | 0 |
Dark-street lights on | 27 | 223 |  | −0.20 (0.25) | −0.27 (0.26) | |
Dark-no street lights | 553 | 1882 | Â | 0.57 (0.10) | 0.59 (0.10) | |
Other | 100 | 447 | Â | 0.50 (0.14) | 0.42 (0.15) | |
 Manner of collision | Non collision (referent) | 294 | 1301 |  | 0 | 0 |
Head-on | 127 | 415 | Â | 0.40 (0.17) | 0.40 (0.18) | |
Rear-end | 716 | 2747 | Â | 0.28 (0.13) | 0.28 (0.13) | |
Angle, oncoming left turn | 361 | 2343 | Â | 0.04 (0.14) | 0.10 (0.14) | |
Sideswipe, same direction | 192 | 2698 |  | −0.85 (0.15) | −0.73 (0.16) | |
Sideswipe, opposite direction | 152 | 1462 |  | −0.65 (0.16) | −0.55 (0.16) | |
Other | 245 | 1781 |  | −0.21 (0.14) | −0.21 (0.14) | |
 Vehicle action | Heading straight (referent) | 1510 | 6934 |  | 0 | 0 |
Turning | 133 | 2489 |  | −0.55 (0.11) | −0.62 (0.11) | |
Overtaking/ passing/ changing lanes | 280 | 1750 |  | −0.25 (0.09) | −0.34 (0.10) | |
Slowing/stopping | 43 | 608 |  | −0.89 (0.17) | −0.84 (0.18) | |
Other | 121 | 966 |  | −0.30 (0.11) | −0.35 (0.11) | |
 Multiple passengers | No (referent) | 1392 | 9908 |  | 0 | 0 |
Yes | 695 | 2839 | Â | 0.28 (0.08) | 0.34 (0.08) | |
 Driver | No (referent) | 433 | 1710 |  | 0 | 0 |
Yes | 1654 | 11,037 |  | −0.16 (0.09) | −0.08 (0.09) | |
Modifiable factors | ||||||
 Driver contributing circumstance | No contributing action (referent) | 871 | 6508 |  |  | 0 |
Disregarded traffic regulation | 302 | 1487 | Â | Â | 0.35 (0.09) | |
Reckless, careless, negligent, aggressive driving | 407 | 2510 | Â | Â | 0.16 (0.08) | |
Inattentive/distracted driver | 256 | 1093 | Â | Â | 0.25 (0.09) | |
Other contributing action | 251 | 1149 | Â | Â | 0.25 (0.10) | |
 Occupant Protection | None (referent) | 870 | 4534 |  |  | 0 |
Seat belt | 1052 | 7439 |  |  | −1.19 (0.09) | |
Child safety restraint | 59 | 384 |  |  | −1.25 (0.20) | |
Other restraint/ protection | 106 | 390 | Â | Â | 0.18 (0.16) | |
Quasi-likelihood Information Criterion (QIC) | 10,844.4 | 10,077.4 | 9676.8 | |||
AUC (95% CI) | 0.69 (0.68, 0.71) | 0.75 (0.74, 0.76) | 0.78 (0.76, 0.79) |