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Table 3 Simulation of gun-related homicide and suicide in New York City after implementation of substance-related ownership disqualifications, among high-risk groups

From: Would restricting firearm purchases due to alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanor offenses reduce firearm homicide and suicide? An agent-based simulation

Intervention

Gun-Related Homicide

Gun-Related Suicide

 

Rate/100,000 (95% CI)

% Decrease (95% CI)

Rate/100,000 (95% CI)

% Decrease (95% CI)

 

Mean

LL

UL

Mean

LL

UL

Mean

LL

UL

Mean

LL

UL

Alcohol Misdemeanor

 Base: Alcohol misdemeanor conviction ever

8.45

8.29

8.62

   

2.07

1.99

2.15

   

 Alcohol misdemeanor conviction ever, 5 yr duration

7.78

7.64

7.91

8.01

6.39

9.62

1.57

1.50

1.64

24.02

20.78

27.27

 Alcohol misdemeanor conviction ever, 10 yr duration

7.72

7.60

7.84

8.70

7.25

10.15

1.52

1.45

1.58

26.63

23.35

29.92

 Base: 2 + Alcohol misdemeanor conviction in 5 years, ever

8.22

7.25

9.20

   

5.31

4.73

5.89

   

 2 + Alcohol misdemeanor conviction in 5 years, ever

5.91

5.31

6.51

28.09

20.80

35.39

3.25

2.79

3.72

38.75

30.02

47.48

Alcohol Arrest

 Base: Any Alcohol ever

6.05

5.85

6.25

   

2.92

2.80

3.05

   

 Any Alcohol ever, 5 yr duration

4.63

4.50

4.77

23.43

21.22

25.63

1.90

1.79

2.01

35.01

31.38

38.64

 Any Alcohol ever, 10 yr duration

4.39

4.23

4.56

27.40

24.69

30.11

1.90

1.79

2.00

35.18

31.73

38.63

 Base: 2 + Alcohol in 5 years, ever

8.40

7.47

9.32

   

4.99

4.45

5.53

   

 2 + Alcohol in 5 years, ever

5.74

5.05

6.44

31.59

23.32

39.86

3.15

2.67

3.62

36.96

27.42

46.51

Drug Misdemeanor

 Base: Drug misdemeanor conviction ever

9.48

9.40

9.55

   

1.60

1.57

1.63

   

 Drug misdemeanor conviction ever, 5 yr duration

9.23

9.16

9.30

2.64

1.92

3.35

1.43

1.40

1.46

10.53

8.50

12.56

 Drug misdemeanor conviction ever, 10 yr duration

9.16

9.09

9.23

3.31

2.56

4.05

1.39

1.36

1.42

13.32

11.34

15.30

 Base: 2 + Drug misdemeanor conviction in 5 years, ever

12.36

11.89

12.83

   

3.11

2.87

3.34

   

 2 + Drug misdemeanor conviction in 5 years, ever

11.80

11.39

12.22

4.50

1.16

7.84

2.56

2.35

2.77

17.72

10.96

24.47

Drug Arrest

 Base: Any Drug arrest ever

8.31

8.22

8.40

   

1.86

1.82

1.89

   

 Any Drug arrest ever, 5 yr duration

7.40

7.33

7.48

10.93

10.04

11.82

1.42

1.38

1.45

23.73

21.73

25.73

 Any Drug arrest ever, 10 yr duration

7.28

7.19

7.37

12.42

11.37

13.47

1.35

1.32

1.39

27.13

25.27

28.98

 Base: 2 + Drug arrest in 5 years, ever

13.23

12.99

13.48

   

2.34

2.25

2.44

   

 2 + Drug arrest in 5 years, ever

12.54

12.31

12.77

5.24

3.52

6.97

2.06

1.96

2.15

12.14

8.17

16.12

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Injury Epidemiology

ISSN: 2197-1714