Characteristic | Crime guns recovered within 1Â year | Crime guns recovered within 3Â years | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Risk Ratio (95% CI1) | t-Value | P-value | Risk Ratio (95% CI) | t-Value | P-value | |
Characteristics supplied by dealer | ||||||
Average sales per year, per 1000 | 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) | -6.4 |  < 0.0001 | 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) | -6.0 |  < 0.0001 |
Average percent denials | 1.06 (1.05, 1.06) | 29.3 |  < 0.0001 | 1.06 (1.06, 1.06) | 29.9 |  < 0.0001 |
Average percent of handgun sales that are pawn redemptions | 1.01 (1.01, 1.02) | 7.0 |  < 0.0001 | 1.01 (1.01, 1.02) | 7.6 |  < 0.0001 |
Average percent of sales in calendar year that become crime guns that year | 1.21 (1.19, 1.23) | 19.7 |  < 0.0001 | 1.21 (1.18, 1.23) | 19.4 |  < 0.0001 |
Percent sales to police in the past year | ||||||
Missing (dealership not open) | 1.20 (1.12, 1.29) | 5.0 |  < 0.0001 | 1.20 (1.12, 1.28) | 5.2 |  < 0.0001 |
 ≤ 5% | 0.92 (0.89, 0.95) | -4.6 |  < 0.0001 | 0.92 (0.89, 0.95) | -5.0 |  < 0.0001 |
 > 5–10% | 1.08 (1.04, 1.11) | 4.8 |  < 0.0001 | 1.06 (1.03, 1.09) | 3.9 |  < 0.0001 |
 > 10–20% | Reference |  |  | Reference |  |  |
 > 20% | 0.72 (0.69, 0.76) | -13.3 |  < 0.0001 | 0.73 (0.70, 0.77) | -13.2 |  < 0.0001 |
Characteristics of the firearm | ||||||
Low-cost manufacturers | 2.12 (2.02, 2.22) | 30.7 |  < 0.0001 | 2.03 (1.94, 2.12) | 29.9 |  < 0.0001 |
Semiautomatic | 1.12 (1.08, 1.16) | 6.6 |  < 0.0001 | 1.13 (1.09, 1.16) | 7.1 |  < 0.0001 |
Caliber size | ||||||
Small | Reference | Â | Â | Reference | Â | Â |
Medium | 1.18 (1.13, 1.24) | 7.4 |  < 0.0001 | 1.18 (1.13, 1.23) | 7.5 |  < 0.0001 |
Large | 1.42 (1.35, 1.48) | 14.8 |  < 0.0001 | 1.40 (1.33, 1.46) | 14.7 |  < 0.0001 |
Any previous law enforcement holds | 0.70 (0.62, 0.79) | -5.8 |  < 0.0001 | 0.68 (0.63, 0.75) | -8.6 |  < 0.0001 |
Any previous law enforcement release | 1.87 (1.60, 2.20) | 7.7 |  < 0.0001 | 1.65 (1.48, 1.85) | 9.0 |  < 0.0001 |
Any previous lost | 4.42 (3.14, 6.22) | 8.5 |  < 0.0001 | 3.68 (2.86, 4.73) | 10.1 |  < 0.0001 |
Any previous pawn redemption | 1.34 (1.18, 1.52) | 4.4 |  < 0.0001 | 1.42 (1.27, 1.58) | 6.4 |  < 0.0001 |
Any previous stolen | 9.96 (7.25, 13.67) | 14.2 |  < 0.0001 | 8.88 (6.99, 11.29) | 17.9 |  < 0.0001 |
Characteristics of the purchaser | ||||||
In possession of handgun | ||||||
Age, per 10 years | 0.70 (0.69, 0.70) | -66.9 |  < 0.0001 | 0.70 (0.69, 0.70) | -67.9 |  < 0.0001 |
Female sex | 1.26 (1.22, 1.30) | -13.5 |  < 0.0001 | 1.25 (1.21, 1.3) | -13.5 |  < 0.0001 |
Citizen status | 0.75 (0.70, 0.80) | -8.5 |  < 0.0001 | 0.75 (0.70, 0.8) | -8.6 |  < 0.0001 |
Race and ethnicity | ||||||
Asian | 0.80 (0.76, 0.84) | -9.1 |  < 0.0001 | 0.79 (0.76, 0.83) | -9.5 |  < 0.0001 |
Black | 3.15 (3.04, 3.26) | 63.0 |  < 0.0001 | 3.18 (3.07, 3.29) | 64.1 |  < 0.0001 |
Hispanic | 1.29 (1.25, 1.33) | 15.8 |  < 0.0001 | 1.28 (1.24, 1.32) | 15.7 |  < 0.0001 |
Native American/Pacific Islander | 1.43 (1.32, 1.55) | 8.6 |  < 0.0001 | 1.44 (1.33, 1.56) | 8.9 |  < 0.0001 |
Other | 1.43 (1.30, 1.58) | 7.3 |  < 0.0001 | 1.45 (1.32, 1.59) | 7.6 |  < 0.0001 |
White | Reference | Â | Â | Reference | Â | Â |
Handguns bought in the last year | ||||||
0 | Reference | Â | Â | Reference | Â | Â |
1 | 1.03 (0.99, 1.08) | 1.4 | 0.18 | 1.04 (0.99, 1.09) | 1.7 | 0.10 |
2–5 | 0.81 (0.77, 0.86) | -7.2 |  < 0.0001 | 0.81 (0.77, 0.86) | -7.1 |  < 0.0001 |
6–12 | 0.76 (0.68, 0.86) | -4.5 |  < 0.0001 | 0.78 (0.70, 0.88) | -4.2 |  < 0.0001 |
 > 12 | 1.79 (1.59, 2.02) | 9.6 |  < 0.0001 | 1.79 (1.59, 2.01) | 9.6 |  < 0.0001 |
First handgun purchase | 1.43 (1.39, 1.48) | 23.3 |  < 0.0001 | 1.43 (1.39, 1.48) | 23.6 |  < 0.0001 |
Criminal history, arrests | ||||||
Infraction with no other charge, past 10 years | 2.24 (1.99, 2.52) | 13.5 |  < 0.0001 | 2.27 (2.02, 2.55) | 13.8 |  < 0.0001 |
Alcohol intoxication, past 10 years | 1.91 (1.84, 1.98) | 34.4 |  < 0.0001 | 1.92 (1.85, 1.99) | 35.1 |  < 0.0001 |
Firearm-related, past 10 years | 2.24 (2.08, 2.41) | 21.4 |  < 0.0001 | 2.21 (2.06, 2.37) | 21.6 |  < 0.0001 |
Major violent crime, past 10 years | 2.20 (2.06, 2.35) | 23.2 |  < 0.0001 | 2.23 (2.09, 2.38) | 24.3 |  < 0.0001 |
Major property crime, past 10 years | 2.41 (2.24, 2.59) | 24.0 |  < 0.0001 | 2.45 (2.29, 2.63) | 24.8 |  < 0.0001 |
Distance to dealer | ||||||
Missing | 0.46 (0.43, 0.48) | -29.6 |  < 0.0001 | 0.45 (0.43, 0.48) | -30.1 |  < 0.0001 |
 ≤ 5 miles | 1.09 (1.06, 1.12) | 6.5 |  < 0.0001 | 1.09 (1.06, 1.12) | 6.6 |  < 0.0001 |
5–20 miles | Reference |  |  | Reference |  |  |
 > 20 miles | 0.87 (0.84, 0.90) | -8.2 |  < 0.0001 | 0.87 (0.84, 0.90) | -8.3 |  < 0.0001 |
Purchaser geographic characteristics | ||||||
SVI2, socioeconomic status, per 10 units | 1.06 (1.06, 1.07) | 17.6 |  < 0.0001 | 1.06 (1.06, 1.07) | 15.8 |  < 0.0001 |
SVI, housing status, per 10 units | – |  |  | 1.00 (1.00, 1.01) | 0.1 | 0.90 |
SVI, racial and ethnic minority status, per 10 units | 1.05 (1.04, 1.06) | 13.7 |  < 0.0001 | 1.05 (1.04, 1.05) | 13.2 |  < 0.0001 |
SVI, housing type and transportation, per 10 units | 1.03 (1.02, 1.03) | 10.6 |  < 0.0001 | 1.03 (1.02, 1.03) | 10.7 |  < 0.0001 |
RUCA2 code 1 | 1.36 (1.30, 1.42) | 14.5 |  < 0.0001 | 1.36 (1.30, 1.41) | 14.6 |  < 0.0001 |
Not in possession of handgun | ||||||
Age, per 10Â years | 1.04 (1.00, 1.07) | -1.9 | 0.05 | 1.05 (1.02, 1.07) | -3.6 | 0.0003 |
Female sex | 1.08 (0.96, 1.21) | -1.3 | 0.20 | 1.04 (0.96, 1.13) | -1.0 | 0.31 |
Citizen status | 0.91 (0.7, 1.17) | -0.7 | 0.46 | 1.06 (0.88, 1.27) | 0.6 | 0.56 |
Race and ethnicity | ||||||
Asian | 1.09 (0.91, 1.30) | 0.9 | 0.35 | 1.18 (1.05, 1.33) | 2.8 | 0.006 |
Black | 1.05 (0.93, 1.19) | 0.8 | 0.44 | 1.07 (0.98, 1.17) | 1.4 | 0.15 |
Hispanic | 0.96 (0.86, 1.09) | -0.6 | 0.56 | 0.99 (0.91, 1.08) | -0.2 | 0.81 |
Native American/Pacific Islander | 0.96 (0.71, 1.30) | -0.3 | 0.79 | 1.01 (0.81, 1.26) | 0.1 | 0.95 |
Other | 1.30 (0.94, 1.80) | 1.6 | 0.12 | 1.08 (0.84, 1.39) | 0.6 | 0.54 |
White | Reference | Â | Â | Reference | Â | Â |
Handguns bought in the last year | ||||||
0 | Reference | Â | Â | Reference | Â | Â |
1 | 1.02 (0.88, 1.19) | 0.3 | 0.77 | 1.04 (0.94, 1.15) | 0.7 | 0.50 |
2–5 | 0.96 (0.79, 1.16) | -0.4 | 0.69 | 0.91 (0.80, 1.03) | -1.5 | 0.13 |
6–12 | 0.74 (0.43, 1.29) | -1.1 | 0.29 | 0.75 (0.51, 1.09) | -1.5 | 0.13 |
 > 12 | 0.30 (0.10, 0.94) | -2.1 | 0.04 | 0.47 (0.27, 0.81) | -2.7 | 0.01 |
First handgun purchase | 1.01 (0.91, 1.12) | 0.2 | 0.86 | 1.06 (0.99, 1.15) | 1.6 | 0.11 |
Criminal history, arrests | ||||||
Infraction with no other charge, past 10Â years | 1.12 (0.70, 1.79) | 0.5 | 0.63 | 1.00 (0.69, 1.45) | 0.0 | 0.98 |
Alcohol intoxication, past 10Â years | 0.93 (0.81, 1.08) | -0.9 | 0.35 | 0.96 (0.87, 1.07) | -0.7 | 0.46 |
Firearm-related, past 10Â years | 0.83 (0.61, 1.11) | -1.3 | 0.21 | 0.80 (0.65, 1.00) | -2.0 | 0.05 |
Major violent crime, past 10Â years | 0.91 (0.70, 1.17) | -0.8 | 0.45 | 0.91 (0.75, 1.09) | -1.0 | 0.30 |
Major property crime, past 10Â years | 1.01 (0.79, 1.31) | 0.1 | 0.92 | 0.97 (0.80, 1.19) | -0.3 | 0.80 |
Distance to dealer, km | ||||||
Missing | 0.61 (0.51, 0.74) | -5.2 |  < 0.0001 | 0.62 (0.54, 0.71) | -6.7 |  < 0.0001 |
 ≤ 5 miles | 0.97 (0.88, 1.08) | -0.5 | 0.60 | 0.97 (0.91, 1.04) | -0.8 | 0.41 |
5–20 miles | Reference |  |  | Reference |  |  |
 > 20 miles | 0.94 (0.83, 1.06) | -1.0 | 0.33 | 0.94 (0.86, 1.03) | -1.3 | 0.19 |
Purchaser geographic characteristics | ||||||
SVI, socioeconomic status, per 10 units | 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) | -2.3 | 0.02 | 0.96 (0.94, 0.98) | -3.6 | 0.0003 |
SVI, housing status, per 10 units | – |  |  | 0.99 (0.97, 1.00) | -2.0 | 0.04 |
SVI, racial and ethnic minority status, per 10 units | 1.04 (1.01, 1.06) | 2.9 | 0.004 | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) | 3.5 | 0.0005 |
SVI, housing type and transportation, per 10 units | 0.99 (0.97, 1.01) | -1.0 | 0.33 | 1.00 (0.99, 1.02) | 0.4 | 0.71 |
RUCA code 1 | 1.30 (1.11, 1.53) | 3.2 | 0.001 | 1.24 (1.11, 1.39) | 3.8 | 0.0002 |